Can the US Ever Recover from the Trump Era?

by Nomad

There's no question that Trump has left his mark on America. Nobody could argue with that.
As we steel ourselves for horror show election of 2020, it is not too early to reflect on what Trump has already done to America.

The Symptom and the Cause

In terms of US foreign policy alone, this administration has been an utter disaster. Take foreign policy, as Professor of Strategic Studies at Johns Hopkins University, Eliot A. Cohen, observes:

[The] surface-level calm of the last two years should not distract from a building crisis of U.S. foreign policy, of which Trump is both a symptom and a cause. The president has outlined a deeply misguided foreign policy vision that is distrustful of U.S. allies, scornful of international institutions, and indifferent, if not downright hostile, to the liberal international order that the United States has sustained for nearly eight decades.

It goes deeper than upending the world order.

The real tragedy, however, is not that the president has brought this flawed vision to the fore; it is that his is merely one mangled interpretation of what is rapidly emerging as a new consensus on the left and the right: that the United States should accept a more modest role in world affairs.

Thanks to Trump, we are all forced to adjust to a world without any positive US leadership on vital issues such as climate change, human rights, international law, world trade, international aid to developing nation, and other topics.

Once steadfast alliances are in disarray and institutions like NATO have been shaken to their core. By turning its back on vital international agreements like the 2015 Paris agreement on climate change, the Trump administration has handicapped their chances for success.    

America's Coming Recession

The White House touts its economic achievements far and wide. According to its website, since his election, things could not be much better. Yet, as AP fact-checker states, Trump is, not unexpectedly, distorting the truth on U.S. economic growth and jobs. He is pointing to record-breaking figures that don’t exist and not telling the full story on black unemployment.

While the president hails his ever-escalating trade tariff wars with China, economic experts fear the economy is on the brink of a recession disaster. Just last week, the warnings of a crisis were sounded not merely for the US but for five of the world's leading economies.

Trump's poorly-thought-out policies have done nothing to soothe these jitters.
Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, pointed out that fears that the trade war will trigger a recession are growing.

“I think a recession is increasingly likely. I’d put the odds at just over even for a recession between now and the end of 2020, assuming the president follows through on his tariff threats.”

Those fears aren't, however, based solely on Trump's reckless trade policy. There are also worries about the national debt which has exploded under Trump in spite of his campaign promises. As Reuters notes:

Instead, it has increased by $2.45 trillion since he took office in January 2017. The total debt outstanding, amassed over many years of deficits, is now $22.4 trillion, its highest level ever, equal to about $68,000 of debt for every American.

Spending is up even as the sources of revenue are drying up. Trump’s tax reform plan- which essentially gave a tax break to the nation's richest- has done nothing to boost the economy.  

The National Association for Business Economics (NABE) polled more than 100 economists employed by major firms in corporate America. Some 84% of these economists reported that in the year since their passage, the tax cuts “have not caused their firms to change hiring or investment plans." Even as corporate profits surged, those dollars went into shareholder-pleasing buyback schemes. 

This is how MarketWatch summed up Trump's tax reform "success"

The numbers couldn’t be clearer: Corporations, big shareholders and top corporate executives reap the lion’s share of the gains from the 2017 tax cut, which should be renamed the Shareholder and CEO Enrichment Act of 2017. It didn’t boost economic growth that much, didn’t start a capital spending boom or U.S. manufacturing renaissance didn’t bring overseas profits back home, and might have led to modest job growth but little discernible wage increases.

What is the Prognosis?

Whether Trump leaves office in 2020 or somehow wins another 4-year term, he will without question be leaving the nation in a much worse condition than when he walked into the White House. All of this is not in question.

The real question is: have we gone too far in the decline to ever return to the pre-Trump era? Is it possible for America to recapture its leadership role? Will the economy ever be as productive as it was before Trump took office? And can the wounds Trump's hateful rhetoric ever be healed?

What do you think? Is America strong enough to survive this president?

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