Protests Erupt in Iran After Airliner Calamity

by Nomad

Seeds of Republican Decline and the Myth of the Progressive Eisenhower

by Nomad

A quote from the Eisenhower era suggests, when it comes to social programs and taxes, the Republican party has drifted a long way toward the extreme right. That is, of course, true. However, a closer look at the source of that quote tells us that the problem with the GOP began early on.

Fast and Loose with the History of the Party

Republicans have always had an extremely selective memory when it comes to the historical facts of their party. You will hear, for example, that the GOP is the "Party of Lincoln" and the Democrats were the party of slavery, without much in the way of elaboration.

Sanity Sunday- July 23- 29 Week in Review and Nomadic Playlist 3

by Nomad

Compared to previous weeks, the last week (July 23- 29) was subdued all in all. That didn't mean there was not a whole lot of unnecessary confusion, alternate facts and general incompetence. After all, Donald Trump is still the president. 

Top Negotiator says US Withdrawal from the Iran Nuclear Deal "A Major Strategic Mistake"

by Nomad

Prior to President Trump's decision to pull out of the Iranian nuclear arms accord, polls showed that majority of Americans (63 percent) said the United States should not withdraw from the agreement. 

According to the poll conducted by SSRS, an independent research company,  29 percent in the latest survey said the U.S. should exit, eight percent did not have an opinion.

Nearly half of those surveyed, 46 percent, said they disapprove of how the president is managing the nation’s relationship with Iran, while 37 percent said they approve. Seventeen percent said they did not have an opinion on the matter.

Four Worldly Quotes by Marjane Satrapi

by Nomad

Born in Rasht, Iran before the revolution, Marjane Satrapi is a graphic novelist, cartoonist, and an illustrator. She has also directed several prize-winning films including the very successful Persepolis. Satrapi has been listed by the Comics Alliance as one of twelve women cartoonists deserving of lifetime achievement recognition.
Satrapi is married to Mattias Ripa, a Swedish national and lives in Paris, France.

Middle East Mayhem: Why Trump's Foreign Policy in Syria is a Disaster in the Making

by Nomad

Recently Foreign Policy magazine conducted an in-depth analysis of President Trump's domestic and foreign policy strategy.
The article is bluntly entitled Trump’s Grand Strategic Train Wreck and was authored by Colın Kahl and Hal Brands, The pair examined Trump's stated policies objectives and came up to one stunning conclusion: as hard as it might seem, Trump really does have a grand strategy.
That's the good news.
The only problem is, however, it's not so grand. In fact, it's a nightmarish mess.

If you have a few sober hours without distractions, the Foreign Policy article's a must read. But don't expect to walk away feeling buoyant and relieved. Au contraire, mon beau amis, anticipate a feeling of exasperation with a touch of despair. 

According to the article, none of the pieces of the Trump grand strategy seem to actually fit together.

According to some analysts, Trump’s endless streams of erratic and apparently improvisational ideas don’t add up to anything consistent or purposeful enough to call a grand strategy. We see it otherwise. Beneath all the rants, tweets, and noise there is actually a discernible pattern of thought — a Trumpian view of the world that goes back decades. Trump has put forward a clear vision to guide his administration’s foreign policy — albeit a dark and highly troubling one, riddled with tensions and vexing dilemmas.

Troubling is an adjective that just doesn't quite capture the full scale of the problem.

The Iranian Nuclear Accord and the True Faith and Allegiance of Senator Ted Cruz

by Nomad

As the Iranian Nuclear Accord becomes a fact, Presidential candidate and Senator Ted Cruz a strange inability to understand how the US Constitution works. Or perhaps he simply refuses to respect the process it established.

According to the Constitution, the powers of the executive branch have two very important limitations. The president cannot declare war (yet, paradoxically perhaps, he/she is also the commander of the US military.)
Additionally, the president cannot make treaties or appointments without the "advice and consent of the Senate."

When it came to the historic nuclear agreement with Iran, Republican-led Congress took that limitation as a tool to stop dead any kind of lifting of sanctions or a less bellicose approach to the Iranian Republic.
Here are some highlights.

Cotton's Overreach

About a year ago at this time, the debate on the four-nation nuclear deal with Iran was ongoing and by summer, it was in full swing. Given adversarial and generally obstructionist attitude in Congress, nobody was surprised that the Republican majority seemed determined in every way to give Obama a lesson he would not soon forget. 

It didn't turn out as planned.

Ridiculous GOP Hysteria and Opportunism Are Exposed by the Iranian Crisis that Never Happened

by Nomad

Once again, in an attempt to humiliate the president, to paint Obama as a weak leader and to exploit what might have been an international crisis, the Republicans have shot themselves in the foot. 

In a surprising twist, Iranian officials have managed to make fools of the Republican candidates and spokesmen for the GOP.

When two U.S. Navy boats were seized in Iranian waters on Tuesday, it could easily have developed into an international crisis. It had all of the makings of a diplomatic disaster for Obama who had fought so hard for peaceful solutions in dealing with the often difficult Iranian Republic. Now, it appeared to be about to blow up in his face. 

The New York Times quoted Fars, state-run Iranian news Agency, Fars, an Iranian state news agency, as saying that the 10 sailors had been arrested, suspected of “snooping.”

Strength and Weakness
The older Republicans closed their eyes and envisioned Jimmy Carter's grimace and blindfolded hostages being paraded before the international press. What a joyful sight must have played in the imaginations of the Republican candidates. 

It must have seemed like a dream come true. Too, too bad about those ten US servicemen but.. oh well..

Syria and ISIS: A Five Minute History of How We Got to This Point

by Nomad

Information is our best defense. Here's a fairly good video that answers the question: How on earth did the world let ISIS happen?

If you have been struggling to make sense of the terror group, ISIS, it's really not your fault. Firstly, it's a complicated situation, with a lot of actors on the stage. Also, the news media in the US has done a pretty lousy job in trying to explain things to those of us who may have a limited understanding of the region and the events that led up to where we are now.

Here's a very helpful video clip which goes a long way in explaining things. It's important that you take a moment to watch because information is your best defense against panic and paranoia. Will this answer all your questions? No, but it is enlightening. And with the information in this clip, you will probably know enough to spot a lie when you hear it.

Blame Game: The Truth Behind Syrian President Assad's Accusation of Western Hypocrisy

by Nomad

In an attempt to deflect his role in the death of his nation and the subsequent exodus of its people, President Assad said it was all the West's fault and it was hypocritical to cry over dead children.

Yesterday The Wall Street Journal reported on an interview with the president of Syria, Bashar al-Assad. During the carefully arranged interview, Assad pointed the finger of blame and hypocrisy at Western countries. These countries, he implied, have backed rebels aiming at toppling the Assad regime. 

This, he claims, is turn what has led to the flood of refugees. 

The Interview and the Numbers

Seated before a panel of very sympathetic Russian reporters, President Assad explained that the reason for the mass desertion of the population is because of terrorism.

"Actually those refugees left Syria because of the terrorism, mainly because of the terrorists and because of the killing, and second because of the results of terrorism. When you have terrorism, and you have the destruction of the infrastructure, you won’t have the basic needs of living, so many people leave because of the terrorism and because they want to earn their living somewhere in this world.

“The West is supporting terrorists since the beginning of the crisis when it said that this was a peaceful uprising. The West is crying for them."

“How can you be sad for a child that dies at sea and you are not sad for the thousands of children, elderly, men and women who died at the hands of terrorists in Syria.”

If you are worried about them, stop supporting terrorists. That’s what we think regarding the crisis. This is the core of the whole issue of refugees.

(For the full interview click here.)

While there is no shortage of hypocrisy in this crisis, Assad's remarks certainly hit a new low in attempts to manipulate world opinion. 

The facts, however, speak for themselves.

No Ideas, No Options: Why the GOP Alternative to a Iran Nuclear Deal is All-out War

by Nomad

An opposition party is supposed to offer alternatives to the ruling parties initiatives. In the case of the Republican party, the alternative to the Iran Nuclear deal is military conflict.

As Congress mulls over the fine print in the Iran Nuclear Arms agreement, it is interesting to listen to some of the reactions of Republican candidates.
It was always perfectly clear that anything that emerged from Obama administration's efforts would be condemned by the Republicans. 

Had the agreement had the   diplomats of the Iranian Republic marching the Supreme Leader in chains to the waiting American warships, Republican Congressmen would have been complaining that the chains were of the wrong weight or that that the speed of the military escort was too slow.

The criticism began long before Congress ever got a chance to look over the actual agreement. That criticism, some say, had much more to do with the bad relationship between the parties and the Right's animosity toward Obama than the particulars of the Iran deal.

Why Iran's Internal Politics May Soon Make Nuclear Negotiations Impossible

by Nomad

The hopes for some kind of equitable resolution of the Iranian nuclear issue are further complicated by the declining health of the Iranian Supreme Leader, Khamenei. We examine how his death could make any kind of breakthrough next to impossible.

Death as a Catalyst for Change

There's no question about it. Time is running out.
If reports are true, the health of the Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is in decline. Western intelligence, as reported by the French paper Le Figaro, says that the 76-year-old has been diagnosed with stage four prostate cancer which has spread to other parts of his body. At most, he has two more years. 

 As Al Jezeera reported last September:

The image of the aging Khamenei recuperating in a hospital bed and being kissed by President Hassan Rouhani has led to speculation about janesheen, or succession, by Iran observers and probably by people at the higher echelons of Iranian politics.

This news is not such a well-kept secret. Concerns about the Supreme Leader's health- as well as, who his successor might be- have been the source of much speculation for the last few years. For all parties concerned, the timing could not possibly be any worse. 

JFK's Reply to Netanyahu: War Need Not Be Inevitable

by Nomad

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will today address the US Congress in an attempt to influence foreign policy with regards to ongoing Iranian nuclear negotiations.

The search for a lasting peace in the Middle East sometimes seems a waste of time. Perhaps, as Kennedy once said, we need to define what we really mean when we think of peace.

In June 1963, President Kennedy gave one of his finest speeches of his presidency. It is known as his American University speech. 

Set against the most dangerous era of the Cold War when the Far Right demanded a tough line against the Communists, Kennedy chose to talk about the path to a lasting peace. At that time, it seemed so far-fetched.

Yet that fact did not stop the president from presenting his thoughts about peace with the Soviet Union: what it entailed, how it could be achieved and why it was a worthy and realistic goal to pursue.

Boehner, Netanyahu and George Washington's Farewell Warning

by Nomad

Without consulting the White House or the State Department, House Speaker Boehner has invited Israeli PM Netanyahu to address a joint session of Congress in less than a month.
George Washington in his last official statement had a thing or two to say about allowing our allies from too much interference in US foreign policy.

Time of Challenge

As most of you have heard, House Speaker John Boehner has invited Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to speak before Congress next month. Presumably Netanyahu will attempt to scuttle extremely negotiations with Iran on its nuclear weapons/energy program. In a statement Boehner explained his reasoning.

“Prime Minister Netanyahu is a great friend of our country, and this invitation carries with it our unwavering commitment to the security and well-being of his people. In this time of challenge, I am asking the prime minister to address Congress on the grave threats radical Islam and Iran pose to our security and way of life.”

The statement should be read very carefully. It seems to be speaking on behalf of the US government. The term "unwavering commitment" might sound great on paper but it can sound very different to the people to whom it applies.

In any case, the White House wasn't impressed. Press Secretary Josh Earnest described it as a breach of typical protocol since the White House wasn't consulted or involved in the decision. Said Earnest, it has been standard procedure for a nation's leader to contact the White House before planning a visit to the United States. 

In this case, however, the White House heard about the invitation  not from the Israelis but from Boehner's office,. Some would call that breach a sign of disrespect for the president and the executive office in general.

Earnest said the White House is reserving judgment about the invite until U.S. officials talk to their Israeli counterparts. Boehner's office confirmed that Netanyahu has accepted, and will give a speech to a joint session of Congress on Feb. 11. The date is significant: It's the 36th anniversary of the Iranian Revolution.

Boehner said in a statement that he had invited Netanyahu to speak on "the grave threats radical Islam and Iran pose to our security and way of life." Yet, critics would counter that there were plenty of other experts available, with much more unbiased sources, to speak on such matters.

Dog Owners in Iran To Receive Lashing for Walking their Pets

by Nomad

If Iranian lawmakers have their way, dog owners could face harsh penalties for taking Spot or Fido for a walk to the park. 

The French News Agency, AFP, recently had this odd and rather unhappy news item for all animal lovers. 

If the conservative parliament of the Islamic Republic of Iran has its way, dog owners may have to pay a heavy price for their pets. Hardliners have proposed a draft bill, that would keep at dogs at home and forbid owners from walking dogs in public. 

That proposal has already been signed by 32 members of the parliament. Violations to the law would see dog owners face up to 72 lashes and heavy fines ranging from 10 million rials to 100 million rials ($370 to $3,700 at official rates).
The law states that:

"Anyone who walks or plays with animals such as dogs or monkeys in public places will damage Islamic culture, as well as the hygiene and peace of others, especially women and children."

Dogs (and monkeys) would, the laws states, be confiscated and held in zoos, or left in forests or other wilderness areas. Even before this law, Iran's morality police were stopping dog owners and warning or confiscating the animals.

News from Iran: Suspicious Explosions and Unexplained Plane Crashes

by Nomad

Here are two news stories from inside the Iranian Republic that didn't get much attention in the mainstream press last week.

According to a report from Iran’s state news agency, two workers were killed by an explosion and fire at a top secret Iranian military facility. One of those killed was reportedly an unnamed "nuclear expert."

The semi-official Iranian Students News Agency (ISNA) also reported that the initial explosive shattered windows 12 kilometers away (about 15 miles) and the glare from the explosion lit up the night sky.

The Parchin site, located east of Tehran, has been off-limits to UN nuclear inspectors since 2005. Countries opposed to Iranian nuclear weapon ambitions have presumed that the site has some special importance to the program.

If the cause of the explosion was sabotage, it would certainly be a matter of grave concern for security. As of this time, it is too early to determine the reasons for the blast and if sabotage were involved, it is unlikely Iranian officials would publicly announce it. There was, not surprisingly, very little coverage inside Iran even though the blast and fireball could be seen by the public.

Tourism, Islam, and Bikinis: Culture Clashes on Turkish Beaches

by Nomad

Turkey's culture clash between Islam and the West may have found a new battlefield: the nation's sunny beaches. And women could be caught in the middle.

Money Maker

To say that tourism is a big money maker in Turkey is an understatement. With more than 31.5 million foreign tourists, the nation ranks as the 6th most popular tourist destination in the world. 

This year, according to Turkey's largest travel agency association, it will see tourists spending a staggering US$35 billion. That's nearly a 10% increase in both the numbers of visitors and the amount of revenue. Most of those tourists will come from Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, Georgia, Bulgaria and the Netherlands. 

In some of the touristic resorts, summer in Turkey means fun and frolic, a lot of youthful (and not so youthful) wildness. Most of this frivolity involves rivers of alcohol. That situation has left some resorts with a bad reputation with tourists because of the general "anything goes" atmosphere. 

But then, drunkenness, occasional fights or public indecency have always been written off as just part of the drawbacks to mass tourism.

Interestingly, according to the association, this year there will also be a significant increase in the number of Iranian tourists. Given the diversity of cultures, you'd think it would be a challenge to accommodate every taste. Well, it often is.
Surprisingly it hasn't as a major problem as you'd think, mainly because of Turkey's high level of hospitality and tolerance.. and patience.

For Iranian tourist, the main attraction is, in a word, shopping. Iranians can buy hard to find brand names in shopping areas in Istanbul and other major cities that would be impossible to buy in Tehran. That's very good news for the Turkish economy.

As far as Turkish businessmen, Iranian visitors, generally speaking, have an excellent reputation. And they do not tax the patience of the natives like many overzealous Europeans do.

Iranian tourists are well-liked, not just because they are big spenders but because they are polite and rarely make trouble. They generally travel as families, not as gaggles of friends, and a loud, drunk Iranian would be highly unusual sight.

Be that as it may, Turkey has to constantly walk a fine line to please everybody.

Romney on Iran: The Dangerous Non-Policy of the Hollow Man

by Nomad

L

ast night’s third and final debate proved once again that the Republican presidential candidate Romney really has nothing new to offer in terms of foreign policy leadership. And when it comes to Iran, Romney demonstrated last night that he is really a hollow man.

His statements on Iran and how he would deal with this sticky problem are really fascinating, though not in a good way. If you listen to the things he said, they might sound impressive but actually upon a closer inspection, they are filled with peculiarities, political posturing and sparkling fluff.

Sanctions

It is also essential for us to understand what our mission is in Iran, and that is to dissuade Iran from having a nuclear weapon through peaceful and diplomatic means. And crippling sanctions are something I called for five years ago, when I was in Israel, speaking at the Herzliya Conference. I laid out seven steps, crippling sanctions were number one. And they do work. You're seeing it right now in the economy. It's absolutely the right thing to do, to have crippling sanctions. I would have put them in place earlier. But it's good that we have them.

So basically then he would do what the president is already doing. No change of policy but he would be happy to take credit for the results. Begun in the last two years of the Bush administration, the sanctions were expanded and strengthened under the Obama administration, according to the Christian Science Monitor "at a speed that has made current US sanctions policy on Iran the harshest in contemporary history. This leaves a potential new Romney administration with few policy alternatives."

Why The GOP Can't Be Trusted with Foreign Policy 3/3

by Nomad

Part One- McCain's Speech
Part Two- Reagan and the Iran-Iraq War

Part 3- Reagan: Between Iran and Iraq

I will now conclude this examination of Reagan’s foreign policy, specifically his handling of two Middle-Eastern nations, Iran and Iraq, and the bloody war between them. 

In this post, we shall see how Reagan’s diplomacy failures and hypocrisies would take a disastrous turn and lead to scandal.

Crossing the Line
Let's begin with a quote:

They say the world has become too complex for simple answers. They are wrong. There are no easy answers, but there are simple answers. We must have the courage to do what we know is morally right.-- Ronald Reagan

The executive decision to begin arming and providing military intelligence to Saddam Hussein, despite an American pretense of neutrality in the Iran-Iraq war, had, by 1983, become more complicated when reports confirmed Hussein’s use of outlawed chemical weapons(CW) on the battlefield.

As early as November 1983, US officials were aware that top secret memos confirmed that Hussein had been using CW. Furthermore, they suspected the source of those weapons to be a US foreign subsidiary

But even then, it wasn’t so much of a moral question or even a legal one. It was a matter of public relations. 

According to a New York Times article in August, 2002, Col. Walter P. Lang, a senior defense intelligence officer at the time, explained that D.I.A. and C.I.A. officials “were desperate to make sure that Iraq did not lose” to Iran. “The use of gas on the battlefield by the Iraqis was not a matter of deep strategic concern,” he said. One veteran said, that the Pentagon “wasn’t so horrified by Iraq’s use of gas.” “It was just another way of killing people _ whether with a bullet or phosgene, it didn’t make any difference.” 

(Compare that with the mock outrage against WMD that helped launch the Iraq Invasion and occupation.)

Why The GOP Can't Be Trusted with Foreign Policy 2/3

 by Nomad

Part 2- Reagan and The Iran-Iraq War

In the previous post, we reviewed John McCain’s speech at the Republican convention in Tampa and all its foreign policy implications. McCain’s call for strong leadership is a staple for the Republicans. 
It has been since the days of Reagan- the father of the neoconservative movement and founder of a revitalized American foreign policy. If only, the Republicans seem to say, today’s politicians could be as bold and decisive as Reagan, America could return to its glory days. 

Hostages of the Past

With the American engagement in Iraq finally at an end, after what can only be called a foreign policy disaster, this is a good time to look back at the long prelude. The roots of that disaster go deep. Back to the early career of Saddam Hussein when American leadership was far more interested in Iran.

On January 27, 1981- one week after Ronald Reagan had been taken the oath of office, he stated,

"Let terrorist be aware that when the rules of international behavior are violated, our policy will be one of swift and effective retribution."