Twelve Russian Vetoes and the Failure of the UN Security Council

by Nomad

An Exchange of Vetoes

On Tuesday of this week,  April 10, Russia used its veto power at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to block the adoption of a resolution to condemn last week’s deadly gas attack in Syria and push Moscow’s ally, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, to cooperate with international inquiries into the incident.

NATO Confronts the Article 5 Trigger in the Age of Cyber Warfare

by Nomad

In the face of Russian cyber attacks, the 29 members of the NATO are searching for solutions and answers. How can the alliance maintain its policy of collective defense against this new type of warfare? What is the appropriate response to Russian asymmetrical warfare without the potential for a runaway scenario? And most importantly, will the American president be willing to provide the kind of leadership that is needed to deal with this threat?

Donald Trump, the GOP and The Dog in the Night That Didn't Bark

by Nomad

The Curious Incident

In his short story, "The Adventure of Silver Blaze," Sir Arthur Conan Doyle, literary father of Sherlock Holmes, first utilized one of  the most enduring plot "hinge." 

Holmes and a Scotland Yard detective are discussing a case of a stolen racehorse, Silver Blaze, and the murder of the horse's trainer. 

Gregory: "Is there any other point to which you would wish to draw my attention?"
Holmes: "To the curious incident of the dog in the night-time."
Gregory: "The dog did nothing in the night-time."
Holmes: "That was the curious incident."

At the core, as Sherlock Holmes explained, it is a question of an unaccountable deviation from normal or expected behavior. The dog didn't bark because the "midnight visitor" was a person it obviously knew very well. As a plot device, the silence of the guard dog has most likely worn out its usefulness.
Yet, on the political stage, the Republican Party has lately been breathing new life into this tired motif. 

Our Benedict Arnold Presidency

by Nomad

When we examine the most infamous traitors of American history, we inevitably turn to Benedict Arnold? His crime was treason but specifically, what were the details of that crime?
For this discussion, a few historical details are important.

Why Russian Opposition Leader Navalny's Recent Video Deserves a Closer Look

by Nomad

At the beginning of this month, while all of us were preoccupied with porn star pay-offs and Trump's tweets, the main opposition leader in Russia, Alexei Navalny posted a video on YouTube, outlining interesting accusations against the Putin administration.
His private investigation involves a wild cast of characters: an indiscreet escort, a philandering oligarch, and an extremely powerful, and possibly corrupt government official.

How Rampant Corruption in Russia Forced Putin to Attack Western Democracies

by Nomad

A few days ago, Sergei Aleksashenko wrote an article in The Moscow Times that very likely went unnoticed in the West. Aleksashenko was Deputy Minister of Finance and Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank in the 1990s.
Since that time, Aleksashenko witnessed with his own eyes the 1992 promise of economic transformation turn sour. The creation of the Putin's autocracy, wiping away Russia's chance for substantive reform, has been one of the modern history's sadness stories.

Fall of the Emigre: A Second Look at the Mysterious Death of Mikhail Lesin

by Nomad

For those who appreciate a conspiracy theory, the baffling death of Mikhail Lesin is straight out of a John le Carré spy novel. Officially, it was ruled as an accident and yet, given current events, Lesin's demise becomes even more suspicious.

Blunt Force Trauma

When the doors of the luxurious suite at the Doyle Dupont Circle Hotel were opened on the Thursday morning of November 5, 2015, Russian emigre, Mikhail Yuriyevich Lesin was found dead and alone. He was found without any identification in a hotel room that was under his name. Police detected no obvious signs of forced entry.
After some delay, a member from the Russian Embassy in Washington, D.C., confirmed the identity as that of 57-year old Lesin.

Traveling from Los Angeles, Lesin had been invited to attend a fund-raising dinner for the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars at the Ritz-Carlton hotel in the city’s West End two nights before.

However, he had not appeared at the event and had failed to respond to phone calls or text messages from the fellow Russian who had invited him, a banker and philanthropist who was honored at that dinner.
Lesin's failure to attend must have seemed peculiar. He had recently confirmed he would be there and was flying into Washington specifically for the ceremony.

In fact, Lesin had been listed among other numerous guests. It meant, as one investigator points out, that "his potential presence could have been known to a large number of people, not all of whom were necessarily his well-wishers."

The Document that Rocked Washington: A Second Look at the Steele Dossier

 by Nomad

Since its release by Buzzfeed last January, the so-called Steele dossier has more than earned the descriptive adjectives "infamous" and "explosive." In light of subsequent revelations, it might be a good time to review the file again.

The Origins of the Document

Firstly, let's examine how the Steele Dossier came into existence.

Last June, 52-year-old Christopher Steele, ex-Cambridge Union president, ex-M.I.6 Moscow field agent and ex-head of M.I.6’s Russia desk, ex-adviser to British Special Forces on capture-or-kill ops in Afghanistan, was offered an assignment through his private British intelligence firm, Orbis Business Intelligence. Suffice to say, with a CV like that, his work should not be taken lightly. Or to put it another way, Steele was not a tabloid scribbler, hunter for celebrity scandals.

Trump and the Imminent Dangers of an "Oh, Never Mind" President

  by Nomad

Last week, The Washington Post featured an op-ed piece by Pulitzer Prize–winning conservative political commentator, George Will. Even though it always helps to be slightly inebriated before reading anything from the right, this piece which caught my ever-roaming eye.

It was entitled "The ‘Oh, Never Mind’ President." 

History’s Most Unprepared Candidate

From the outset, there's something you need to know. Mr. Will has made it perfectly clear that he's no great fan of Donald Trump. Back in June of last year, Will actually walked away from the Republican party due to his issues with the billionaire. 

And in November, Will called Trump's victory "a ruinous triumph for the GOP." Reading the following passage, the word "scathing" is one that immediately comes to mind.

The simultaneous sickness of both parties surely reveals a crisis of the U.S. regime. The GOP was easily captured, and then quickly normalized, by history’s most unpleasant and unprepared candidate, whose campaign was a Niagara of mendacities.

But there's another word to describe Will's thoughts. "Disingenuous."

Will seems to think Republican party was, until the marmalade Menace marched onstage, the party of common sense, and fiscal prudence. 

Naturally, Mr. Will is welcome to his historical re-writing, and Lord knows, the last 40 years of US politics has given scrubbers like him plenty of work. Still, Trump didn't start the mess but he is going to make it a lot worse very soon. 

Shaltay Boltay: The Fall of Russia's Humpty-Dumpty

by Nomad

One of the stories that was, I think, under-reported in all of the ongoing Trump-induced chaos was the strange tale of the arrest of the Russian colonel. Here's some information on that mysterious event. 

The Arrest of the Colonel

In December 2016, one of Russia's top security officials was arrested and it was, by all accounts, an extremely dramatic event. During a meeting, officers grabbed him, putting a bag over his head before taking him away.The charge: high treason.

The accused, Colonel Sergey Mikhailov, was the former chief of the 2nd Operational Management of FSB Information Security Center (ISC).

At that time of the arrest, it was tempting to make some kind of connection between Russian interferences in last year's election and this arrest. The spate of mysterious deaths of Russian officials calls out for some explanation or theory about what's really going on behind the scenes.
However, the story of this particular event, based on the information which has emerged, could easily have been the subject of a Le Carre spy thriller.

The Wealthy Russians Who Call the United Kingdom Home

by Nomad

In a time when war-torn refugees coming to Europe and the UK are looked upon with skepticism, fear, and dread, there's been very little discussion of the economic migration of the wealthy class from Russia.

The Good Life and the Illusion of Safety

It's not what you'd call new news. In 2012, CNBC reported

Wealthy Russians are moving to London is such large numbers that local commentators have coined the term “Londongrad.” Roman Abramovich, the Russian multi-billionaire who owns the Chelsea Football Club is the highest-profile rich Russian in Britain, but he is only one of ten Russian billionaires living there, while an estimated 1,000 Russian millionaires now call London home.

The reasons for this exodus, according to attorneys and real-estate agents in London who deal with the Russian rich, is the attraction of the stability and the refined culture of London life.

But something else: the relative safety of not being poached by the mob or arrested by the police. As Reuters reported that same year.

Leaked secret diplomatic cables from the U.S. embassy in Moscow once described Russia as a "virtual mafia state", and London has long been the chosen destination for Russians seeking refuge from trouble at home.

Hybrid Warfare: NATO Investigates Putin's Troll War against the West 3/3

by Nomad

Part One
Part Two

In the third and final installment in this series, we finish up with a look at what NATO learned by studying Russian trolling activities in the Baltic nation of Latvia before 2015. How can we apply these findings to what went on in the US a year later?

So Why Latvia?

Back in 2015, NATO had several good reasons for choosing the tiny Baltic nation of Latvia to study how hybrid trolling operated.

When it comes to vulnerability, the nation has many unique characteristics. For one thing, Latvia and Russia share a 214 km border as well as a long and often contentious history. Even today, it is very much in the shadow of the Russian bear.

It is also a divided nation.
Demographically, ethnic Latvians form 61% of the population while a full 25.6% are ethnic Russians. There are other divisions as well. Latvia is historically predominantly Protestant Lutheran yet its ethnic Russians population is Eastern Orthodox Christians. Despite the fact that the sole official language of Latvia is Latvian, Russian, widely spoken during the Soviet occupation, is still the most widely used minority language.

It is also one of the limited club of NATO members that was once a member of the rival Warsaw Pact 1955–1991 and a part of the Soviet Union. Latvia regained its independence in August 1991 when the Soviet Union collapsed.  For that reason, Latvia will probably always be a politically divided nation.
For these and other reasons, Latvia is in many ways a perfect target for outside tampering by Russians.

Manafort and Deripaska: More Secret Russian Connections in the Trump Team

by Nomad

The tangled web woven by President Donald Trump's former campaign chairman, Paul Manafort, just keeps getting more and more tangled.
And now there's this:

The Associated Press is now reporting that Manafort 

"secretly worked for a Russian billionaire to advance the interests of Russian President Vladimir Putin a decade ago and proposed an ambitious political strategy to undermine anti-Russian opposition across former Soviet republics."

That's quite a bold claim. It's also one that would flatly contradict Trump administration assertions that Manafort himself that he never worked for Russian interests.
Nope, never. Fake news, people!

Hybrid Warfare: NATO Investigates Putin's Troll War against the West 2/3

 by Nomad

In Part One of this series, we took a look at the basic principles of Russia's hybrid warfare campaign on social media based on a 2015 NATO report. In this segment, let's take a look at how these techniques have been used in practice. In addition, we will look at the role that Russian hybrid warfare played in the 2016 campaign.

That's a puzzle that's still missing quite a few pieces.

Early Warnings

I don’t think anybody knows that it was Russia that broke into the DNC. She’s saying Russia, Russia, Russia—I don't, maybe it was. I mean, it could be Russia, but it could also be China. It could also be lots of other people. It also could be somebody sitting on their bed that weighs 400 pounds, okay? - Donald Trump, September 26, 2016

This remark by candidate Trump in last months of the campaign must have struck many informed observers as extremely peculiar. His denial of Russian hacking didn't fit into the established timeline.

Only a few months earlier, on July 27, in the heat of the campaign, Trump had invited Russian hackers to find the 30,000 Hillary Clinton's emails. 

And a month before that, June 15, 2016, a hacker calling himself Guccifer 2.0 explain he had given the hacked emails to WikiLeaks. The emails reportedly came complete with telltale Russian-language formatting errors. Yet, Trump was still inexplicably denying what was already obvious.

Hybrid Warfare: NATO Investigates Putin's Troll War against the West 1/3

  by Nomad

The role that social media outlets, like Twitter and Facebook, play in managing and influence public perception has really come to the forefront since the 2016 US election. Few would argue that social media's influence in this presidential election is stronger than it has ever been.
Immediately after the election, NPR pointed out how social media have changed our national political conversation, turning it into "a loud mess." The advent of fake news transformed what should have been a public discussion into a battle of conspiracy theories.

Experts are now studying whether it was some natural effect or whether all of the confusion was actually stage-managed by unseen hands?

NATO and Social Media 

In 2015, well before the election, one of those who took a keen interest in this subject was NATO, specifically the Strategic Communication -Centre of Excellence (NATO StratCom COE). This agency was asked to conduct a study on how social media has been transformed into a weapon of hybrid warfare.

The report that emerges presents a frightening snapshot of the methods, targets, and effectiveness of this new type of warfare.  

Ever since the beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, for example, we have seen fake identities and accounts being created in order to "disseminate narratives through social media, blogs, and web commentaries in order to manipulate, harass, or deceive opponents."

The 1999 Moscow Apartment Bombings and the Rise of the Man President Trump Admires

by Nomad

In September 2009, American novelist, journalist, and a veteran war correspondent Scott Anderson wrote this: 

It is a riddle that lies at the very heart of the modern Russian state, one that remains unsolved to this day. In the awful events of September 1999, did Russia find its avenging angel in Vladimir Putin, the proverbial man of action who crushed his nation's attackers and led his people out of a time of crisis? Or was that crisis actually manufactured to benefit Putin, a scheme by Russia's secret police to bring one of their own to power?

What makes this question important is that absent the bombings of September 1999 and all that transpired as a result, it is hard to conceive of any scenario whereby Putin would hold the position he enjoys today: a player on the global stage, a ruler of one of the most powerful nations on earth.

The riddle he refers to has, today, been largely forgotten by the world press. Yet, understanding what happened in Moscow in 1999  may be a vital question that Americans need to think about.

Middle East Mayhem: Why Trump's Foreign Policy in Syria is a Disaster in the Making

by Nomad

Recently Foreign Policy magazine conducted an in-depth analysis of President Trump's domestic and foreign policy strategy.
The article is bluntly entitled Trump’s Grand Strategic Train Wreck and was authored by Colın Kahl and Hal Brands, The pair examined Trump's stated policies objectives and came up to one stunning conclusion: as hard as it might seem, Trump really does have a grand strategy.
That's the good news.
The only problem is, however, it's not so grand. In fact, it's a nightmarish mess.

If you have a few sober hours without distractions, the Foreign Policy article's a must read. But don't expect to walk away feeling buoyant and relieved. Au contraire, mon beau amis, anticipate a feeling of exasperation with a touch of despair. 

According to the article, none of the pieces of the Trump grand strategy seem to actually fit together.

According to some analysts, Trump’s endless streams of erratic and apparently improvisational ideas don’t add up to anything consistent or purposeful enough to call a grand strategy. We see it otherwise. Beneath all the rants, tweets, and noise there is actually a discernible pattern of thought — a Trumpian view of the world that goes back decades. Trump has put forward a clear vision to guide his administration’s foreign policy — albeit a dark and highly troubling one, riddled with tensions and vexing dilemmas.

Troubling is an adjective that just doesn't quite capture the full scale of the problem.

Here's the Intel Report that President-Elect Trump Didn't Want the World to See

by Nomad

Yesterday's blockbuster leak of a 35-page classified intelligence report has, at long last, emerged as President-elect Trump prepares to be sworn into office.

The report, disclosed by a site called BuzzFeed, seems to reveal the extent of the alleged Russian involvement with Trump's campaign.

The document, a dossier prepared by a former British intelligence officer hired by Mr. Trump’s political opponents, had been circulating among high-ranking politicians and some journalists since the fall. Intelligence officials recently presented a two-page summary of the allegations to Mr. Trump and President Obama, CNN reported on Tuesday.

The allegations, which could not be absolutely substantiated, appear to come from a variety of credible sources, in and out of the US government intelligence community.

The charges suggest that Russians were gathering highly damaging information about Donald Trump, of both a ("perverted") sexual and financial nature for over 5 years. 

Nevertheless, while the report raises a lot of questions about Trump and foreign manipulation of the election, nothing has been proved.  Many reputable new sources refused to print the report and since the advent of purposefully faked news sites, deniability has now been permanently built into any disclosure.

Is Putin's Majoritarian Democracy the Alt-Right's Fast Track to Fascism in America?

by Nomad

In the hands of a corrupt leader, majoritarian democracy can be a very dangerous thing. Russian president Putin is all the proof the world needs. 

A Dangerous Idea in the Wrong Hands

Most Americans take a positive view of democracy. Everybody wants to live in a democracy. Yet, it might surprise a lot of people to learn that, in its purest form, the democratic idea can actually be a dangerous thing.
The term, majoritarian democracy, for example, refers to a democratic form of government based upon majority rule of a society's citizens.
Pedro Schwartz, a professor in the Department of Economics at the University San Pablo in Madrid, explains:

Many modern constitutions proclaim that sovereignty is ultimately vested on the people. In that case, the power of the people must also be divided if liberty is to endure. Democracy can therefore not be defined as the rule by majority vote. Neither does it imply that the vote of the majority is "an authoritative expression of what is right".

Strictly speaking, majoritarian democracy is defined as the concept that anything more than a 51 percent share of the popular vote entitles the election winner to rule without interference.
For far right-wing parties, who claim this to be no-nonsense democracy, it has proved to be an extremely useful concept to justify their agenda.

Russia Direct: The Rebirth of Journalism or Just Another Cynical Putin Ploy?

by Nomad

Monologues vs. Dialogues

Here's an interesting podcast about the Russian government attempts to promote fair and balanced journalism inside America. Or maybe it's just a new Russian offensive against the West.

The motto of Russia Direct is "turning monologues into dialogues" and seeks to reach out to "well-educated Americans."
The target audience is Americans who are "skeptical" and open-minded. Cynics would say that those are precisely the kind of people that would be most accepting of Russian propaganda. Especially in light of the election of a president of the US is casting aspersion about US-based intelligence agencies and news sources that do not match exactly his own way of thinking.

Founded in 2013, Kremlin-financed Russia Direct features original reporting which, depending on your perspective either represents the possibility of breathing new life in journalism or just another attempt by the Russian government to subvert the West with phony journalism.
(Not a particularly rare commodity in the West as it is.)