Spiraling Out of Control: The Dangerous Fallacies of General Mattis

by Nomad

Contrary to what the Defense Secretary apparently believes, there's a lethal risk in basing American foreign policy on the belief that other nations will pull back from the brink.

Red Lines and Spirals

On April 11, 2017, Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis and General Joseph L. Votel, commander, U.S. Central Command held a press conference. It was a comparatively sedate and well-mannered meeting with the press. Mattis came across as a wise and disciplined type of leader, something solely lacking in the Trump administration.

However, there was an exchange that stood out for me and worth a bit more attention.

Q: Secretary Mattis, you're a student of history. You're a student of strategy. You've talked about red lines. The president has talked about red lines. The Russians have talked about red lines. At what point is there a danger of this spiraling out of control and to conflict between two nuclear-powered countries?

SEC. MATTIS: I don't believe I've talked about red lines. I generally shy away from it myself. I recommend Assad be rather cautious about violating international law with chemical weapons. I suppose that could be considered a red line. So I won't argue the point.
It will not spiral out of control. As you know, Secretary of State Tillerson is in Moscow. We maintain communications with the Russian military and with the diplomatic channels. It will not spiral out of control.

Why Iran's Internal Politics May Soon Make Nuclear Negotiations Impossible

by Nomad

The hopes for some kind of equitable resolution of the Iranian nuclear issue are further complicated by the declining health of the Iranian Supreme Leader, Khamenei. We examine how his death could make any kind of breakthrough next to impossible.

Death as a Catalyst for Change

There's no question about it. Time is running out.
If reports are true, the health of the Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is in decline. Western intelligence, as reported by the French paper Le Figaro, says that the 76-year-old has been diagnosed with stage four prostate cancer which has spread to other parts of his body. At most, he has two more years. 

 As Al Jezeera reported last September:

The image of the aging Khamenei recuperating in a hospital bed and being kissed by President Hassan Rouhani has led to speculation about janesheen, or succession, by Iran observers and probably by people at the higher echelons of Iranian politics.

This news is not such a well-kept secret. Concerns about the Supreme Leader's health- as well as, who his successor might be- have been the source of much speculation for the last few years. For all parties concerned, the timing could not possibly be any worse.