The Secret of Putin's Political Longevity? Old Soviet Wine in New Russian Bottles

by Nomad

A St. Petersburg professor asks the question a lot of people have been wondering: How long will President Putin be able to hold onto power?

The Real Reason why Putin is Still Around

Professor of the Department of Economics at the European University in St. Petersburg, Dmitry Travin, points out in an article for The Moscow Times, that, even though the corruption of the ruling authorities is "too obvious for thinking people to hold out any hope of progress" the Russian authorities have been effective at suppressing (or at least, discouraging) mass protests.

It would appear, Travin postulates, that Putin's expiry date will come when he himself sets the date.

But why? What could account for Putin's political longevity, which in modern Russia is the only measurement of success? 

The answer is something that many Americans long accustomed to a certain degree of political tranquility, (at least until recently) tend to overlook: stability.

Living and Dying in the Arms of Mother Russia

by Nomad

Here's a peek into some of the reasons why Russians, men, in particular, have a hard time surviving until what we consider middle-age. Sadly for the Russian government, there's not a single reason but a multitude of them. 

Russia is no country for old men. And it's not all that great for old women either. That's not an opinion but a fact.
According to a recent report by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), most Russian citizens will not see their 71st birthday. But how does that stack up against other countries, you ask?

The life expectancy in the former Communist country lags nearly ten years behind the average in developed countries. That's also lower than countries with similar income levels such as Turkey, Mexico or Chile.

Russia ranked 43rd out of the 45 countries surveyed. The average life expectancy in Russia in 2013 was 70.7 years. but the life expectancy for Russian men is just 64 years. (For U.S. men, the average life expectancy is 76.)

Experts have made some conjectures on why Russians have such a hard time staying alive past their seventh decade.

Up in Smoke

Lifestyle choices are blamed for the poor showing, namely high rates of alcohol abuse, and smoking.
Back in 2013, Putin signed legislation that placed an increased tax on cigarettes raising the price to approximately $1.50 a pack.
(A smoker's paradise compared to most Western countries.)

A Superpower in Crisis and the Disgrace of Mr. Trump

 by Nomad

Win or lose tomorrow, Donald Trump has achieved one thing from his campaign. He has justified unspoken international concerns that the US is no longer a dependable ally.

Doubts and Worries about Donald

Even at a superficial glance, this year's election has been a fairly pathetic spectacle. There really haven't been any high moments. Only a dismal record of low points, which somehow defied expectations of how low the presidential race could actually go. 

Much of the blame for that must rest on the sloping shoulders of one man, Donald Trump.

Whether he beats the odds and becomes the next president or not, Mr. Trump has accomplished something quite out of the ordinary. Through his bombast and his vulgarity, through his extremely volatile populist rhetoric (accompanied by a remarkable ignorance about all things), this unlikely candidate has accomplished something that no other American candidate has done before.  

Trump, his history, and his manner of politics all have created a sense of doubt and suspicion amongst even our oldest allies. 

A “hate preacher” was how German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier described Trump. French President François Hollande said  that Trump’s “excesses” had produced “a retching feeling.” Members of the Britain’s Parliament have had an opportunity to exercise their wit at Trump's expense, referring to the businessman-turned-candidate as  a" “demagogue,” and a “buffoon.” 

And that's just the opinion of our closest allies.

Distrust and Discord: How Putin and Trump Have Teamed Up to Undermine the Political System

Attempts to Tamper?

Recently, U.S. officials announced they have “high confidence” that Russia is behind what they describe as a major influence operation in this year's election. They could not go into specifics and admitted that their evidence probably would not yet stand up in any court. 

The breaches include hacking into the email servers of the Democratic National Committee (DNC) Presumably, this was in search of damaging information which might be used to cripple the Clinton campaign.

But there were other concerns too.

In mid-August, the FBI alerted all 50 states to dangers that their election systems might be vulnerable to attack. Authorities have also delivered evidence of a “significant” number of new intrusions into their systems. Experts at the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security “are still trying to understand" who is behind it and what's actually going on.

Admittedly, neither the United States or Russia are innocent when it comes to meddling in the elections of other nations. In the past, the CIA made a more or less regular practice of it in countries. The very first CIA covert action was a manipulation the 1948 Italian elections. 

More recently Russia has reportedly interfered in the elections of major U.S. allies that have imposed sanctions on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.
Attempting to manipulate the elections in the US is- as far as we know- a first.

NATO: Trump's America-First Mercenaries vs. Eisenhower's "Strength Through Unity"

by Nomad

Trump's past comments on NATO suggest that he would like to radically restructure the organization into something like a private security business. His critics say this is the worst time for such a dangerous power-play. On the other hand, nothing could make Russian president happier.

Back in 2013, Donald J.Trump -the tireless tweeter- appropriated Eisenhower's quote for his own obscure purposes.

“A people that values its privileges above its principles soon loses both.” - Dwight D. Eisenhower

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 10, 2013

It was, of course, before his announcement to run for president. Back before, he began to win primary after primary and, with the soul of Republican Party on the auction block, before the nomination of his party.

The Trump of 2013 wasn't much different than the Trump we see today. This tweet can, therefore, be written off as yet another pathetic example of Trump's absolute lack of circumspection.

After all, what person could better represent the arrogance of privilege than the billionaire business who can tell an audience (with a straight face) that a paternal loan of a million dollars was a "small loan?"
Is there a better man to represent the privilege of white male culture than Trump? And has there ever been a presidential candidate who so openly and so blithely put his business interests above all other principles?

As we reach the end of what has been a bizarre election, (to say the least) it's hard to point to any principles that Trump values. He has defiantly trashed any pretense that he is a principled type the moment he stepped onto the national stage.

The Power to Discern Right From Wrong

Quoting a respected Republican president like Eisenhower is actually a dangerous thing for Trump to do. It naturally invites comparison.

Fortress Russia: What Lessons Can We Learn from Putin's Campaign to Destroy Independent Media?

by Nomad

Russian President Putin's assault on the independent media in his country has been an undeniable triumph. And it took only five years. In fact, the Russian leader's success represents just part of a worldwide trend to convert the media into a tool of the state or of special interests. 

Putin's Subjugation of a Free Media

In the US, people might complain in exasperation about the media, its negligence, and incompetence and its willingness to cozy up to Corporate America. 

The fact that Donald Trump has been allowed to get this far without any serious examination of the man's character- indeed, his sanity- is an indication that it's not imaginary.    

There are legitimate reasons to complain about the sorry state of journalism. True or not, such carping also requires us to put a few things into proper perspective. 

Compared to other countries like China and Russia, (and even one of our NATO allies) the freedom of America's media is still something a lot of countries can only dream of.  

In those countries, Facebook comments are routinely monitored, tweets are selectively censored and woe to you, if your humble Instagram remark should attract the attention of an over-zealous government prosecutor. 

President Vladimir Putin once compared journalism to intelligence work, his former specialty when he was a KGB officer. He remarked:

Journalism, as concerns collecting information, differs little if at all from intelligence work. In my judgment, a journalist's job is very interesting.

It's a very enlightening quote if you think about it. In making the comparison, Putin ignores one of the main principles of a free press, and its most important feature, its independence from the state. 

Intelligence work is very different than journalism in that it does not work for the state. Unlike intelligence work, the information that journalists find becomes a public resource, freely available to citizens who care about discriminating the true from the false. 

Czar Vladimir: How Putin Wasted Russia's Best Chance for a Liberal Democracy 3 / 3

by Nomad

In this final installment of the three-part series, we turn to the realities of Putin's attempt at empire-building and the tragedy of lost opportunities. We also ask "Quo Vadis, Mother Russia?"

Part One
Part Two

A Very Dangerous Neighbor

Although he might be nostalgic for the good old days of the Soviet era, Russian President Putin is intelligent enough to know there's little hope of returning to that time. One of the main drawbacks to that period was the failure to move hearts and minds. The dull and drab years could not possibly inspire a nation.

He seems much more interested in a revival of Russian imperialism, steeped in a largely imaginary czarist past and supported by a national religion.

Author of the book, Putin’s Wars : The Rise of Russia’s New Imperialism, Marcel H.Van Herpen notes:

This official revival of old imperial pomp and glory coincided with an increasingly aggressive behavior vis-à-vis the former Soviet republics.

In 2009, Putin's policies really moved out of the domestic arena. In August of that year, a new law came into effect which allowed the use of Russian troops in foreign countries “to protect citizens of the Russian Federation.” 

The threat of the law lay in its interpretation and application.

These measures seemed to be meant as a legal preparation for eventual armed interventions in Russia’s Near Abroad and were interpreted as a growing Russian bellicosity, experienced as a threat by its neighboring states.

As we have seen, those fears about the implications of the law were entirely justified with the invasion of Ukraine.

In 2014, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov attempted to justify the use of Russian troops sent into neighboring Ukraine’s Crimea region as a necessary protection for his country’s citizens living there.

Lavrov told the UN Council on Human Rights in Geneva:

“We are talking here about protection of our citizens and compatriots, about protection of the most fundamental of the human rights – the right to live, and nothing more.”

He assured the audience:

“Human rights are too important to make it a bargaining chip in geopolitical games, to use it to impose one’s will on others; less so to instill regime change,”

However,  absolutely nobody was fooled by Lavrov's remark.

Czar Vladimir: How Putin Wasted Russia's Best Chance for a Liberal Democracy 2 / 3

by Nomad

In Part One of this three-part series, we examined how the fall of the Soviet Union should have provided Russia with its best hope for liberal democracy.

In this part, we will look at how Vladimir Putin's autocratic tendencies and hi use of Russian nationalism was a wrong turn for the nation.

Stability, Nostalgia and Nationalism

In some sense, it was inevitable that Putin would make use of Russian nationalism to unify Russia. In the end, there are only two responses when you lose your empire: Acceptance or something else. 

The "something else" in the Russian case was not gradual acquiescence and recognition that a new way of thinking had to emerge. What happened was a defensive surge in Russian nationalism, a return to stabilizing traditions and conservative values.  After years that threatened to tear the nation apart, Russian citizens yearned for stability and something in return for lost prestige. 

This reaction coincided with the rise of Vladimir Putin who promised security and stability. Former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev credited Putin with having "pulled Russia out of chaos." 

That's probably not inaccurate. It was, however, a stability required some sacrfices when it came to civil liberties, transparency and human rights.

Mass Exodus as Political Weapon: NATO thinks Putin Using the Refuge Crisis to Destroy Europe

by Nomad

A recent statement by a high ranking NATO official claims that the migrant-refugee crisis is a Russian conspiracy. The aim? To destroy the European Union.

Matthew Holehouse of the UK Telegraph reports that the Supreme Allied Commander -Europe and the head of the US European Command has a theory about what's actually happening with the refugee crisis in Europe. 

Four-star General Philip Mark Breedlove told the Senate Armed Services Committee that Putin has intentionally created this crisis in an attempt to "overwhelm" and "break" Europe.

He explained:

"Together, Russia and the Assad regime are deliberately weaponising migration in an attempt to overwhelm European structures and break European resolve."

Describing fleeing migrants as a "weaponized" migration is certainly one way to make victims into the enemy though I don't believe Breedlove meant it that way. He told the Senators:

"These indiscriminate weapons used by both Bashar al-Assad, and the non-precision use of weapons by the Russian forces, I can't find any other reason for them other than to cause refugees to be on the move and make them someone else's problem.".

The Telegraph article, oddly, finds confirmation of Breedlove's remarks in the statements made by the Russian ambassador to London, Alexander Yakovenko. Yakovenko said that the ceasefire in Syria involving Russian forces “will help alleviate the migration crisis in the EU.” 

A link is not an example of causation. 

Napoleon Explains Why Putin Sent Kisses and Hugs to Candidate Trump

by Nomad

A week or so ago, Russian president gave a positive assessment of Donald Trump. He called Trump "the absolute leader of the presidential race" and called Trump "a bright and talented person without any doubt." 

Putin added that he believed the candidate was "an outstanding and talented personality."
Oh, brother. 

Amid alll of those glowing reviews, there was apparently not a trace of a sarcastic smirk on that waxy face.

Some commentators claimed that Putin's remarks were quite sincere and that Putin respected "fighters" and wants "a manly adversary." 

(take that, vagina-welding Hillary!)

On the other hand, this quote by Napoleon might better explain Putin's reasoning.

Of course, if you look at it from Russia's point of view, Donald Trump in the White House could achieve what no enemy of the US could ever dream of.
In about six months.

If you were the leader of Russia, wouldn't you want Trump to be the next president of the United States?

Russian Sanctions on Turkish Fabric Imports Halt Production of Anti-Turkish T-Shirts

by Nomad

With relations between Turkey and Russia at an all-time low, T-shirt designers in Russia are learning about the peculiar twists of globalization.

In need of a good irony fix? Well, Nomad does house calls!

You may have heard about the falling out between Russia and Turkey after the downing of a Russian bomber which had likely violated Turkish airspace for all of 17 seconds. One pilot was killed by rebels conducting target practice on parachuting Russians. 

Both sides had their own versions of what happened and things got meaner and nastier. A "stab in the back" was how the clearly-flustered Putin put it. Erdogan claimed to right to defend his national airspace.

Tit for tat snipes quickly were followed by the imposition of trade sanctions.
That's no small matter either.

In 2014, trade between the two countries amounted to $31 billion, and in the first nine months of 2015, to $18.1 billion. Turkey Russia’s eighth largest trading partner, while Russia is Turkey’s second largest trading partner, after the European Union. For different reasons, both economically-troubled nations do not need this hiccup.

Closing Doors: Why Russian Travel Restrictions May Signal a Return to Soviet Days

by Nomad

By the use of tighter travel restrictions and fear tactics, The Russian government may have a few very good reasons for trying to spoil its citizens' vacations abroad.  

The Freedom of Movement
St. Augustine once said:

“The world is a book and those who do not travel read only one page.”

The liberating effects of leaving your native land and seeing how others live -if only for a short time- are well-known.
The freedom of movement is, in fact, a human right, recognized in Article 13 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. 

This right to travel covers not only inside one's own country but to other countries. Furthermore, the right pertains not just to visiting and holiday-making but, if desired, the right to change one's residence permanently.

The provision in the UDHR states:

• Everyone has the right to freedom of movement and residence within the borders of each State.
• Everyone has the right to leave any country, including his own, and to return to his country.

In that respect, internal borders should be as limited as possible and external borders should act as a regulator of the flow but not a block.
Like a lot of things in the UDHR, there are quite a few limitations to the real-life applications.  It's is, indeed, hard to imagine how this freedom of movement could be applied strictly or even in a practical way.

Immigration and emigration will always be considered a part of national sovereignty. There will always be zones in every country where people cannot travel. There will always be costs imposed that in themselves limit this freedom.
Moreover, persons charged with or convicted of crimes are  denied this right.

With so many exceptions, you might even wonder about the wisdom of including such a right in the first place. Why was this article deemed necessary you might ask?

Syria and ISIS: A Five Minute History of How We Got to This Point

by Nomad

Information is our best defense. Here's a fairly good video that answers the question: How on earth did the world let ISIS happen?

If you have been struggling to make sense of the terror group, ISIS, it's really not your fault. Firstly, it's a complicated situation, with a lot of actors on the stage. Also, the news media in the US has done a pretty lousy job in trying to explain things to those of us who may have a limited understanding of the region and the events that led up to where we are now.

Here's a very helpful video clip which goes a long way in explaining things. It's important that you take a moment to watch because information is your best defense against panic and paranoia. Will this answer all your questions? No, but it is enlightening. And with the information in this clip, you will probably know enough to spot a lie when you hear it.

How Russian President Putin Uses "Foreign Agent" Laws and State-Owned Media to Intimidate Dissent

by Nomad

Russia's English-language daily newspaper, The Moscow Times, has this insight in how the Russian government, with state-owned media at its side, is using controversial legislation to intimidate NGOs and hush dissent.

Human rights activist Nadezhda Kutepova had spent decades fighting for the rights residents of Ozyorsk in the Chelyabinsk region, some 600 miles south of Moscow. Today, however, Kutepova is living in Paris. She fears retaliation by Russian authorities if she ever dares to return.

Blame Game: The Truth Behind Syrian President Assad's Accusation of Western Hypocrisy

by Nomad

In an attempt to deflect his role in the death of his nation and the subsequent exodus of its people, President Assad said it was all the West's fault and it was hypocritical to cry over dead children.

Yesterday The Wall Street Journal reported on an interview with the president of Syria, Bashar al-Assad. During the carefully arranged interview, Assad pointed the finger of blame and hypocrisy at Western countries. These countries, he implied, have backed rebels aiming at toppling the Assad regime. 

This, he claims, is turn what has led to the flood of refugees. 

The Interview and the Numbers

Seated before a panel of very sympathetic Russian reporters, President Assad explained that the reason for the mass desertion of the population is because of terrorism.

"Actually those refugees left Syria because of the terrorism, mainly because of the terrorists and because of the killing, and second because of the results of terrorism. When you have terrorism, and you have the destruction of the infrastructure, you won’t have the basic needs of living, so many people leave because of the terrorism and because they want to earn their living somewhere in this world.

“The West is supporting terrorists since the beginning of the crisis when it said that this was a peaceful uprising. The West is crying for them."

“How can you be sad for a child that dies at sea and you are not sad for the thousands of children, elderly, men and women who died at the hands of terrorists in Syria.”

If you are worried about them, stop supporting terrorists. That’s what we think regarding the crisis. This is the core of the whole issue of refugees.

(For the full interview click here.)

While there is no shortage of hypocrisy in this crisis, Assad's remarks certainly hit a new low in attempts to manipulate world opinion. 

The facts, however, speak for themselves.

The Browder Affair and the Death of Russian Economic Reform 3/3

by Nomad

Part One
Part Two

In this final installment of the series, we examine how foreign investor Browder was about to find out that Russia could be a very dangerous place to do business. In many ways, it was, for opportunity hunters of the West, to be the end of the fantasy of Russian reform.

By November 2005, Russian official had just about had enough of William Browder's crusade to clean up corruption. Officials in Moscow decided to demonstrate to this upstart from the West, this shareholder activist, who held all of the cards.

End Game

Returning from a business trip, Browder was denied re-entry at the Moscow airport. He suddenly found himself in the ridiculous position of having to do business in Russia as an exile. It was the beginning of the end with his love affair with Russia and his admiration for Putin.

After a decade of successful investments in Russia, Browder was blacklisted by the government and was officially listed as a "threat to national security." The reason for this, The Economist wrote, was actually because Hermitage had interfered with the flow of cash to "corrupt bureaucrats and their businessmen accomplices".

Browder exiled himself to London and was forced to pay $230 million tax bill.

In June 2007, the endgame began. As the head of the law firm representing Hermitage, Jamison Firestone later told reporters, dozens of police officers "swooped down on the Moscow offices of Hermitage and its law firm.

The Browder Affair and the Death of Russian Economic Reform 2/3

 by Nomad

Part One of this series

In Part two, we pick up the story of the crusader investor, William Browder. As an activist shareholder whose business model was based on exposing corruption, Browder was about to meet his Waterloo with the Russian global energy giant, Gazprom.

The Payoff and the Payout

William Browder's mission to expose and clean up corruption within Russian corporations was not based on any altruistic motives. On the contrary, it was an application of basic capitalist principles. simply a way of increasing the value of the companies in which he owned stock.

A corporation cleared of corruption was bound to be more efficient and in practical terms, more accountable to its shareholders. Furthermore, it was bound to be more profitable.

However when it came to Gazprom, Russia's oil giant, that practical idea was to hit a snag. When Browder's investment fund  Hermitage Capital Management (along with other minority shareholders) launched its anti-corruption campaign, it would turn out to be, in fact, an indictment against the whole Russian way of doing business.

A Washington Post article in December 2000 reports the growing concern by foreign shareholders. Accountability was, they discovered, an illusion.

The huge natural gas monopoly Gazprom, one of Russia's largest enterprises, has transferred hundreds of millions of dollars in assets outside the company in recent years while signing lucrative deals with a firm largely owned by Gazprom's current and former directors, executives and their relatives, documents show.

(The article- though predictably complex- lays out a pretty good case for widespread corporate abuse that would have made Enron executives blush.)

The Browder Affair and the Death of Russian Economic Reform 1/3

by Nomad

Here's a three-part post on the investor who led a crusade to clean up corrupt newly-privatized companies in Russia. The Browder affair ended up leading to an international crisis, the death of one man, another man in fear for his life. 

Meet William Browder, once the head of a London-based investment fund called  Hermitage Capital Management. In his prime, Browder became the poster child for a new kind of investor, one that was ready to seize the moment and jump into the emerging Russian market.  At one time, it was considered where bold investors went.

Today, Browder is  reportedly in fear of being kidnapped by Russian criminal syndicates working with the Kremlin. His story may sound like a thriller novel but it also serves as a warning to any foreign investor thinking about doing business in Russia. 

The Backstory

The story William Browder, it has been said, reads like a real-life LeCarre novel. It is, in fact, much more than that. In many ways, the Browder case reflects everything that went wrong with the hope and promise of Russia in the post-Soviet era. 

Browder is, without question, a complex character. It's in his genes. He is the grandson of Wichita-born Earl Browder. (Another biography made for film) Earl was certainly a man of strong political beliefs when to be a Communist was a dangerous thing to be.

During World War I Browder served time in federal prison as a conscientious objector to conscription and the war. Later he became a union organizer and later in 1927 went to Moscow, married a Russian woman named Raissa. Afterward, upon his return to the US, Earl became the head of the Communist Party in the United States.

Around 1933, Earl was already warning.

"There is little doubt that Hitler will rearm Germany and, with the help of the Western capitalist powers, unleash war against the Soviet Union."

Felix Browder, Earl's son, and father of the subject of this story became a noted Princeton mathematician.
From those roots, Earl's grandson, William Browder, drew his impeccable credentials as a hybrid communist-capitalist for the post-Soviet age.

Open Season for Intolerance: How Russia's Anti-Gay Propaganda Laws are Destroying Lives

by Nomad

A Russian newspaper article provides an example of how discriminatory anti-gay propaganda laws have become for Russia's gay citizens. In fact, it has become a tool for hunting down individuals and destroying their careers. 

Last month a music teacher at a school for disabled children in Saint Petersburg was fired for "an amoral action."
The crime? 

Her identity. Her sexual orientation.

According to the news report, the teacher was outed by an anti-gay crusader, Timur Bulatov, who then wrote a letter of complaint to the school authorities.  In a private meeting, the administrators told her that because she was a lesbian, she would no longer be allowed to work with students.  For a dedicated teacher, this decision was heart-breaking. 

She told one reporter:

"During all the years of my work at the school I gave all I had to my favorite profession, developing a love for arts, music among the children. ..Considering the capabilities of our children with moderate to severe developmental disabilities, I tried to make every lesson interesting, educational and fun."

What's important to understand here is that the teacher was not openly gay to her students. The anti-propaganda laws do not, it would seem, apply in this case. The incident shows the predictable outcome of the Russian duma's 2013 passage of new laws banning the “propaganda of non-traditional sexual relationships to minors.

Crimean Chess: The Six Unintended Effects of Putin's Ukrainian Miscalculation

by Nomad

By miscalculation, Russian President Vladimir Putin seems to have painted himself into a corner since his decision to back the Ukrainian separatists.
At least that's what one expert on the Russian economy and foreign policy believes. 

The Crimean Move

In the chess game  of international diplomacy, Putin's decisions in Ukraine have been more blunderful than wonderful. His supporters have said it was a bold act of defiance to the West but others say it reflects that the Soviet mentality is still very much alive in Mother Russia.

In a recent article, Chatham House's John Lough observes that Vladimir Putin and his advisers may have been correct about how easy it was to undermine Kiev’s control of the strategically important area, Putin seems to have "gravely underestimated the consequences."

Lough is a associate fellow of the Russia and Eurasia program and vice president with BGR Gabara Ltd, a public affairs and strategic consulting company. 

The Crimean move, Lough implies, was not Putin's finest hour.
 He writes:

An easy tactical victory has triggered the prospect of long-term confrontation with the West that spells potential strategic disaster.

It is easy to mistake Putin's decision in Ukraine as an offensive strategy. However, it's probably a misreading of the Russian pyche. One of Russia's historical fears has always been its border security.